Expectation and variance
However, only one who wins over the long run can be considered a truly successful player.
After a couple of successful bets, many beginners and hobby players begin to misjudge their own strengths, considering themselves to be betting professionals.
An indicator such as the mathematical expectation helps to assess success in the long term.
Under the mat. Expectation in betting is understood to be such a value that the bettor can win or lose when regularly making a bet with the same odds. There is a formula for calculating the indicator:
M = (Probability of winning) x (amount of potential winnings for the current bet) - (probability of losing) x (amount of potential loss for the current bet).
When the mathematical expectation is greater than zero, the player remains in positive territory. If M <0, then at a loss.
Determining the variance is especially important for bettors using the catch-up strategy and its derivatives.
Dispersion - deviation of game results from average indicators, mathematical expectation at a distance. It characterizes the uneven distribution of negative or positive totals in the rates. As stated in 22 bet app article, it is considered as follows:
D = (1 - 1 / K) ^ S, where
S - the number of negative (positive) outcomes in a row
K is a factor.
Of course, a win-win mathematical strategy for 22 bet download has not yet been created, but without a competent checkmate. analysis it is impossible to beat the bookmaker at a distance. It is the mathematical approach to betting that significantly increases the bettor's chances in this confrontation, helping to choose underestimated bookmaker outcomes, competently manage bankroll, reduce risks and simply exclude emotions.
Read more in Wikipedia: Probability Theory