Under these conditions, automakers are forced to experiment with new business models in order to maintain their position in the market. We figure out who will win in the long run, and how urban mobility will develop in the market.


Car sharing, taxis and self-driving cars Palatine
Residents of megacities are switching to car sharing and taxi services, and in 10-20 years they will massively switch to “drones”.

Car sales are falling

In the 2010s, the automotive market was going through hard times: car sales were steadily falling, manufacturers were reporting losses, and analysts were seriously talking about the crisis.

The turning point should be 2019, after which the decline in sales will reach a record low since the financial crisis of 2008. The drop in demand has overtaken even the largest automotive market - in China, sales fell by 10%. In the USA - by 1.3%.

Why is this happening? There are several reasons. One of the main factors is the spread of taxis and carsharing in large cities. As IMF experts found out, the availability of per-minute car rental services has greatly influenced residents of megacities.

The second factor is the acceleration of technological progress. Why buy a new car model if an improved version with advanced functionality and a comparable price will be released tomorrow? Consumers take a wait-and-see attitude and are in no hurry to make a purchase.

Do not forget about savings. Recently, HSBC bank analysts (VIN lookup) found that a Russian who travels less than 5,400 km per year is more profitable to use a taxi than a private car. Using carsharing is even more profitable. According to Data Insight and Yandex, short-term rentals will be cheaper if the average driver drives no more than 20,000 km per year. In these conditions, especially given the increase in tax rates in 2019, buying your own car seems less attractive to consumers.

Democratic brands are losing ground

The wait-and-see attitude that consumers have taken strikes first of all at democratic brands. For example, Nissan sales in Russia fell by 16% in the first 9 months of 2019. Renault, Toyota, Mitsubishi and Mazda also sell worse. In general, over this period, the dynamics settled at -2.5%. In the premium segment, the figures are better - + 2.7%.
The statistics of "AUTOSTAT" for November (ref.: VIN check) looks even more sad: in the mass segment, the decline in sales was 8.5%, while in the premium segment, sales, on the contrary, increased by 6.4%. Even the popular KIA and Datsun models began to sell worse.

At the same time, the share of the mass market in the Russian car market exceeds 90%, and poor sales statistics are reflected in the indicators of the entire car market. Manufacturers enter the new decade in a very precarious position - especially given the extensive growth in R&D costs in the field of unmanned technologies.

Free parking will be (even) less

The more accessible parking spaces, the more often residents use their own cars. Free parking in megacities is an absolute advantage for car owners, but they multiply the number of cars on the roads and aggravate traffic jams, their maintenance is very expensive for the city. Studies show that the availability of parking is inversely proportional to the demand for public transport: the higher the fares, the less often residents use their own cars.

In the city, paid parking zones began to be introduced 7 years ago, their coverage is growing every year, and tariffs are increasing and in the future they can grow to $ 10-30 per hour (Recently, Deptrans announced that it plans to expand the coverage of paid parking in different areas).

In addition, in Russia they want to revise the standard for the size of a parking space for cars, reducing it by half a meter in width and 0.3 m in length. Due to this, they want to increase the capacity of paid zones. The course towards expensive parking will only intensify in the coming years, reducing the number of cars in the center and unloading roads are still the main KPIs of Deptrans.

Car sharing and taxi

Urban planning expert Donald Shoop has calculated that over its lifetime, the average car spends 95% in a static state: a private car in Moscow leaves the yard or garage less than once a week. For comparison, a car in car sharing makes from 6 to 10 trips, and a taxi - up to 20. As a result, the efficiency of the vehicle increases - it is less idle and transports many times more people per day. See details here VIN lookup free.

So, car sharing users usually drive about 13 km, spending an average of 32 minutes and 224 rubles on the trip. They save on gas and parking, and in the long run they do not spend on repairs, taxes and insurance. At the same time, Muscovites who travel to the city every day spend about 200 hours a year looking for a parking space (in New York it is 250 hours / year, in Tokyo - 170 hours), and the average time to use transport to travel from point A to point B remains negligible.